UK Diplomats Advised Against Military Action to Topple Robert Mugabe

Recently released papers show that the UK's diplomatic corps advised against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Considerations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Leader

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government indicate officials weighed up options on how best to deal with the "remarkably robust" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK participated in a US-led coalition to overthrow Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to develop potential options.

Isolation Strategy Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was not working, having failed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents included:

• "Seek to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-engage", the approach supported by the then departing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"Our experience shows from conflicts abroad that changing a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," adding that "The only candidate for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It cautioned that military involvement would result in significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Short of a severe human and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any efforts to remove Mugabe forcibly."

The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or join military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."

Long-Term Strategy Advocated

Blair's foreign policy adviser, Laurie Lee, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "we probably have to accept that we must play the longer game" and re-open talks with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, writing: "We should work out a way of revealing the lies and malpractice of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then afterwards, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a firm agreement."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had advocated cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has said and done".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Earlier assertions that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressure Thabo Mbeki into joining a military coalition to depose Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.